Numbers, articles, news about people recovering, getting sick and updates on the economy. It took me a long time, but I finally realized that COVID-19 is here to stay.
The past few months I’ve been participating in and hearing endless talks about how tired we are and how we can’t wait to see an end of it. It took me a while to understand (maybe more to accept) the scale of the problem. Even if the virus won’t mutate like flu, sticking to us for decades if not centuries, we are still really far from getting rid of it.
It’s not that it’s so deadly, and even though it’s highly contagious like it was pointed out at the early stages, most people recover in home settings. The problem is that it’s new, it flipped our world upside down and it is a not-researched, potentially life-costing challenge that we now have on top of all other diseases and death tolls we already had.
On May 26 at 6:30 a.m., the U.S. death toll was at 99,807. Even if we manage to contain the current wave, the virus won’t disappear. And this significant number shows that it can be pretty serious.
Since the beginning of the pandemic we’ve been hearing talks about the vaccine coming in at least 12-18 months. It seems to be really long, but the problem is that in the world of science it’s impossibly fast.
Again, I probably just didn’t want to accept the idea that things won’t get back for a long time. But it hit me when the Arcola and Oxbow acute care and emergency services were announced closing, to turn into alternative level of care facilities as part of the Saskatchewan Health Authority’s (SHA) COVID-19 surge plan. It’s not that they closed, it’s that they closed now, when we started feeling the relief and almost believed that at least for some time it was over.
So I finally looked into what it takes to produce a cure or a vaccine for a new disease humanity encounters. Turned out, hard work, dedication and best intentions don't guarantee success in this case. We still don’t have either for HIV, we still don’t really know what to do with cancer. On average it takes five to 15 years for a vaccine to come to market, and that is if the working candidate is discovered. We’ll set a record if we have it in a year and a half.
But let’s imagine that miraculously one of the numerous candidates, now in works all over the world, will prove to be working. The next stage is to scrupulously check how it works in people. And even though the first stage may go fast, the next one has to take time. The testing stage usually takes up to 19 months, after which the regulatory agency has to review the data before allowing mass production. That can take up to a year. Any rush, and there is a good chance we end up with a potentially harmful and not-working drug. Do the math, and you’ll see what struck me like lightning. Even in the best-case scenario, we won’t have an approved vaccine earlier than end of summer 2021. And that is probably too optimistic. Besides, there are numerous economic factors in play that may slow everything down.
But while it all is in process, we have to make a few really difficult but vital decisions. First, where should the vaccine be produced and initially distributed? Some insist that we should project where the next waves will hit the worst and set the production there to stop the fire before it spreads. Others want to see it to appear in the west as soon as possible and be distributed here first, which may lead to the rest of the world to fall behind. One way or the other, the decision has to be made soon, as setting manufacturing capacities will also take time.
Another big question is the vaccine distribution strategy. As far as I can see there is no way everyone can have it at about the same time. Who should get it first? Should it go to seniors and immune-compromised people? Will it work well enough in the older population because some don’t? Maybe instead it should be administered first to those, for whom it’ll work the best? Or should it be delivered to the most affected groups to protect them first? Or to essential and, first of all, healthcare workers? Which strategy will work the best for everyone?
There is no vaccine yet, but there are a lot of decisions to make, which may affect the global outcome for the pandemic. And unless it goes away like SARS (slight chance, but it exists) we need to find the answers, as finding a vaccine is one thing, but producing a vaccine that is working for everyone is a totally different story.
