Last week Time came out featuring U.S. President Joe Biden on the cover, with Russian President Vladimir Putin reflected in his shades. The image was surrounded by headlines like Taking on Putin, The Autocrat's Game and Inside the Spy War.
Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin will meet for the first time since the U.S. election on June 16. What to expect from this somewhat historical date? To tell you the truth, I don't expect much coming out of it. It is happening, which is an achievement in itself.
The last time Putin met with an American president, Trump at that time, was in 2019 in Japan at the G20 summit. Not much came out of it. Since 1999, when the current Russian president took the office, he met the last four U.S. presidents. Biden will be the fifth.
The last time then-Premier Putin met with then-Vice-President Biden was 10 years and three months ago. That time their date took place in Moscow. Now the relations between Moscow and Washington are way worse than they were in 2011. And the world is making forecasts for the presidents' meeting.
The experts' evaluation shows that Russia-U.S. relations are at their lowest since the Cold War. While the Cold War rhetoric is often used when it comes to these countries (as well as to the U.S.-China relations recently), the bigger picture has drastically changed since the Caribbean crisis and the fall of the Berlin Wall. Especially after Trump's term, Europe doesn't take the NATO alliance as strongly and mainly sees the future taking a path of dialogue in a multipolar world.
In the meantime, the U.S. in its approach usually presents the world order in more of a black and white palette, in which they have to remain an undisputed superpower to protect everyone from everyone. And Russia insists on its unique path, while also trying to reclaim its position as an equal partner in the dialogue with the U.S.
The agenda of the meeting in Geneva assumes the discussion of the entire complex of bilateral relations and regional affairs. On the Russian behalf, the hope is to at least stabilize the relations with the U.S., which were steadily degrading since … Biden accused Russia of interfering with the 2020 U.S. elections this March? Or with the 2016 U.S. elections? Or since the investigation into several poisonings Russian secret services are blamed for? Or maybe since the beginning of the military conflict in Ukraine in 2014? I don't think there is a firm date, but it hasn't been good between the two major global players for a while.
Cyber activity and hacker attacks linked to Russian companies are also a big concern for the American counterpart. While the White House stated that they don't believe the Russian government plays a role in recent cyber incidents, they deem Russian political powers were involved and expect the government to take steps.
The American side stated that they are not willing to conflict with Russia, and rather hope for sustainable and predictable relations. However, Biden also pointed out that if Russia does some destructive moves, the reaction would be accordant.
The new U.S. president's line towards Moscow is different from Trump's approach. On the one hand, Biden put more sanctions against Russia and is working on enhancing relations with Ukraine; on the other, his recent decisions created the makings of the completion of gas pipeline North Stream - 2, which will deliver more Russian gas to Germany. He also is working on extending the agreement on strategic offensive weapons, which many see as a limitation of the American military development, while others doubt that Russia would stick to this last remaining major agreement controlling the two nuclear states.
Ahead of the date in Geneva, White House press secretary Jen Psaki stated that they don't expect the solution for all of the American-Russian affairs to come out of the meeting. But I believe the counterparts must be expecting something, and "stability" in relations is too vague of a goal for the two strategic players. After all, what'd be the point of meeting, if no real outcomes were expected?
As Matthew Rojansky, the director of the Wilson Centre's Kennan Institute, put it, Biden is taking a tough approach on Putin, aiming at stopping Moscow's destructive politics, which is impossible without dialogue. However, time has shown that it's not that easy, if possible at all, to make the Russian president do something not suiting his interests. And he definitely won't accept a lecture on what to do and what not to do with the country he's been ruling as president and premier for over 20 years.
Russian-U.S. dialogue has always been a story of competing egos and ambitions, which unfortunately rarely assumes anything rather than a zero-sum game, and thus, doesn't go too far.
We'll see what the presidents' date in Geneva brings, and hopefully, this will be the potential beginning of a long-term constructive, rather than destructive dialogue.
