Entering Tuesday’s Alberta provincial election, there wasn’t much doubt as to who would form the province’s next government.
The question was: how big would the margin of victory be for the United Conservative Party (UCP)?
We now have our answer. The UCP won. By a lot. And Alberta is back in the hands of a conservative party, much like it has for the bulk of the past 85 years, dating back to the days of the Social Credit Party in the 1930s.
When the New Democratic Party was elected in Alberta in 2015, some viewed it as a changing of the guard. It was not. It was a protest vote against the mis-steps and failings of successive Progressive Conservative Party leaders ever since the wildly popular Ralph Kelin resigned in 2006.
Alberta’s economy was no longer a powerful engine. It was struggling due to the crash in the price of oil and natural gas.
So the people turned to the NDP.
The NDP wasn’t as bad as its critics make them out to be. Yes, there were mistakes along the way, most notably imposing a carbon tax on a province where a carbon tax will hamstring the economy. They also ran large deficit budgets, and further alienated rural voters with some of their policies.
But Premier Rachel Notley fought for pipelines, and rallied against federal measures that would further damage the oil and gas sector.
It should be noted that her government was a one-term government, and that is likely the most damning label you can give to a government.
Even if the Notley government was one of the greatest we’d ever seen, it was going to be tough for them to be re-elected after the two conservative parties in Alberta joined forces a few years ago.
When the NDP won the 2015 election, the NDP captured 40 per cent of the vote. The two parties that split the right-wing vote – the Progressive Conservatives and the Wild Rose Alliance – combined for 52 per cent.
Once those parties came together, and elected Jason Kenney as their leader, the NDP’s days as the governing party in Alberta were numbered.
We’ll see whether Kenney is finally going to be that successor to Klein in the Alberta conservative political dynasty, or if he’s going to be the latest in a long line of leaders to fizzle out.
He’ll have a longer leash than Ed Stelmach, Allison Redford or the late Jim Prentice.
Kenney is undeniably a strong and charismatic leader, but he’s already been dogged by controversies over how he won the UCP leadership race.
The provincial election campaign was also far from flawless for the UCP. They engaged in a nasty and vicious campaign with the NDP; both sides deserve blame for the way in which the campaign deteriorated. And the UCP faced questions about their vetting of candidates after comments made by UCP hopefuls came to light.
One thing that can’t be denied is that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s life just became even more difficult now that Kenney is Alberta’s premier. Trudeau just lost another ally in Notley.
Kenney will likely be a more formidable foe for Trudeau than any of Canada’s other premiers, including Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe.
The new Alberta premier is going to go after the feds on equalization, the carbon tax and other issues that have a negative impact on his province. He’s also making threats to cut B.C. off from its oil.
Not only does Kenney’s election make the next few months before the federal election even more interesting, but it makes the next few years more interesting as well.
