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Evaluating the Bernier effect

Maxime Bernier’s decision to leave the Conservative Party caucus was inevitable, and it’s not a coincidence that he decided to bail on the party during the party’s annual convention last month.

Maxime Bernier’s decision to leave the Conservative Party caucus was inevitable, and it’s not a coincidence that he decided to bail on the party during the party’s annual convention last month.

His days within the party caucus were numbered after comments about diversity and multiculturalism in Canada. The Tories weren’t going to boot him from the caucus, knowing that it would only serve to turn Bernier into a martyr among some supporters, but they stripped him of his critic duties, essentially giving him no choice but to leave the caucus. 

Regardless, Bernier is gone, and has his sights set on starting his own party. Can the Canadian Libertarian Party be far behind?

It’s hard to believe that this is the same Bernier who came so close to becoming the leader of the federal Tories less than 16 months ago. He led every ballot except for the last one, when Saskatchewan MP Andrew Scheer gained enough support through the preferential ballot system to edge Bernier.

But it showed that more people thought Bernier should be leader than any other candidate.

When Scheer won the Tory leadership, most outside the party didn’t give him much of a chance to win the 2019 federal election. After all, the federal Liberal government under Justin Trudeau was still doing very well in the polls, and it seemed unlikely they would squander that lead in a two-year span.

But thanks to a series of political and economic gaffes that have seemingly reinforced the concerns that many had about Trudeau’s ability to do the job before the 2015 election, the Liberals seem to be susceptible to defeat right now.

And while it would likely be an upset if the Liberals are defeated next year, it wouldn’t be classified as a shocker.

It’s unlikely that you’ll see much of a vote split between the Tories and Bernier’s new party in the next election. It will still be new, and without a strong presence. It would be hard to find enough people to field a candidate in each constituency.

But it could hurt the party’s showing in Quebec. If you want proof of Bernier’s political acumen, consider that he’s a Conservative who was elected four times in Quebec. There aren’t many Tories who can say that in the last 25 years.

And the Tories have seen a resurgence of popularity in Quebec recently. They won a by-election in the province earlier this year. And while that victory came with a star candidate – a former junior hockey coach – it’s the type of victory the party wasn’t enjoying a few years ago.

We’ll find out whether Bernier’s defection from the party affects the Tories’ chances in La Belle Province next year.

Since the merger between the Tories and the Canadian Alliance Party in 2003, they have enjoyed a united right in Canada. They have also distanced themselves from certain controversial issues.

There’s a reason they didn’t touch issues such as abortion, capital punishment and same-sex marriage during nearly a decade in power. They knew they couldn’t win by bringing those issues forward.

But they have also done a good job of attracting support from newcomers. Whereas the Liberals used to dominate the newcomer vote, the Tories have enjoyed the backing of a growing number of first and second-generation Canadians this century.

So when a high-ranking member of the party, who nearly became leader, voices his concerns with diversity and multiculturalism, you can understand why the party was swift to act, even though it might cost them a small share of their base.

Locally, a large number of residents have been revelling in the struggles of the federal Liberals since Trudeau II became prime minister in 2015. He’s had plenty of missteps. He can’t come close to a balanced budget, he has botched legislation, he had a trip to India earlier this year that was a diplomatic nightmare, and now he’s dealing with issues such as the renegotiation of NAFTA and the ill-fated decision to purchase the Trans-Mountain Pipeline Expansion.

Suddenly, this dream that many people in Souris-Moose Mountain had of Trudeau being a one-and-done prime minister doesn’t seem quite so far-fetched.

And Prime Minister Scheer might just happen, even without Bernier’s support.